🇺🇸 United States
United States is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 53.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 9.5 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
62.5
24h
-0.3
7d
+1.4
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+6.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+12.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+4.5
30-day trend
Latest
62.5
30D high
63.0
30D change
+1.8
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 62.5
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
United States is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 53.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 9.5 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
United States's alliance posture and strategic ties add 20 baseline points.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
United States's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 20.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Civilian exposure context
United States's civilian and state-presence context adds 12 structural points.