🇫🇷 France
France is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 56.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 7.3 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
63.3
24h
+0.2
7d
+1.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+8.4
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+12.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+2.9
30-day trend
Latest
63.3
30D high
63.7
30D change
+0.9
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 63.3
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
France is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 56.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 7.3 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
France's alliance posture and strategic ties add 20 baseline points.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
France's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 20.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Civilian exposure context
France's civilian and state-presence context adds 12 structural points.