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🇩🇪 Germany

Germany is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 53.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 7.6 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.

Exposure score

60.6

Severe

24h

+0.2

7d

+0.9

This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.

Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC

Exposure drivers

Active Conflict Pressure

Weight 30%

Raw 38.338.3/100

Weighted contribution

+11.5

Alliance Entanglement

Weight 20%

Raw 95.095.0/100

Weighted contribution

+19.0

Nuclear-Actor Exposure

Weight 20%

Raw 80.080.0/100

Weighted contribution

+16.0

Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure

Weight 15%

Raw 73.373.3/100

Weighted contribution

+11.0

News / Rhetoric Escalation

Weight 15%

Raw 20.720.7/100

Weighted contribution

+3.1

30-day trend

Latest

60.6

30D high

60.9

30D change

+0.9

025507510003/0403/0903/1403/1903/2403/2904/02

Apr 2, 2026

Exposure score 60.6

Citations

  • GDELT

    Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity

    Latest source date 2026-04-01

  • ACLED

    Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity

    Latest source date 2026-04-01

  • ATLAS Baseline Model

    Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more

    Latest source date 2026-04-04

Current assessment

Germany is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 53.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 7.6 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.

Current state: Severe

Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC

Top drivers

  • Driver 1

    Alliance entanglement

    Germany's alliance posture and strategic ties add 19 baseline points.

  • Driver 2

    Nuclear-actor exposure

    Germany's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 16.0 baseline points.

  • Driver 3

    Civilian exposure context

    Germany's civilian and state-presence context adds 11 structural points.