🇨🇦 Canada
Canada is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 41.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 4.8 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Civilian exposure context are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
45.8
24h
+0.2
7d
+0.9
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+3.8
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+19.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+10.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+2.0
30-day trend
Latest
45.8
30D high
46.4
30D change
+0.7
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 45.8
Citations
- GDELT
Rhetoric intensity, Novelty spike
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Conflict intensity, Recent escalation pattern
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Canada is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 41.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 4.8 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Civilian exposure context are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
Canada's alliance posture and strategic ties add 19 baseline points.
Driver 2
Civilian exposure context
Canada's civilian and state-presence context adds 11 structural points.
Driver 3
Nuclear-actor exposure
Canada's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 10.0 baseline points.