🇵🇰 Pakistan
Pakistan is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 58.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 11.7 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
69.7
24h
+0.2
7d
+0.7
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+20.2
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+12.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+4.5
30-day trend
Latest
69.7
30D high
69.7
30D change
+1.5
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 69.7
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Pakistan is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 58.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 11.7 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
Pakistan's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 20.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Flashpoint proximity
Pakistan sits near Kashmir, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 3
Alliance entanglement
Pakistan's alliance posture and strategic ties add 13 baseline points.