🇰🇷 South Korea
South Korea is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 59.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 11.3 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
70.3
24h
-0.1
7d
+1.1
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+21.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+15.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+18.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+5.3
30-day trend
Latest
70.3
30D high
70.9
30D change
+1.8
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 70.3
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
South Korea is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 59.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 11.3 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
South Korea's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 18.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Flashpoint proximity
South Korea sits near Korean Peninsula, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 3
Alliance entanglement
South Korea's alliance posture and strategic ties add 15 baseline points.