🇹🇷 Türkiye
Türkiye is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 56.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 9.7 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
65.7
24h
0.0
7d
+0.7
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+16.2
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+19.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+16.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+3.5
30-day trend
Latest
65.7
30D high
66.0
30D change
+1.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 65.7
Citations
- GDELT
Rhetoric intensity, Novelty spike
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Conflict intensity, Recent escalation pattern
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Türkiye is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 56.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 9.7 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
Türkiye's alliance posture and strategic ties add 19 baseline points.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
Türkiye's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 16.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Civilian exposure context
Türkiye's civilian and state-presence context adds 11 structural points.