🇮🇷 Iran
Iran is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 45.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 19.4 of 30. Flashpoint proximity and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
64.4
24h
-0.3
7d
+2.7
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+22.1
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+10.3
30-day trend
Latest
64.4
30D high
64.7
30D change
+5.8
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 64.4
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Iran is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 45.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 19.4 of 30. Flashpoint proximity and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Flashpoint proximity
Iran sits near Persian Gulf, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
Iran's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 13.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Civilian exposure context
Iran's civilian and state-presence context adds 11 structural points.