🇮🇱 Israel
Israel is currently in the critical tier. Structural baseline contributes 63.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 20.1 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
83.1
24h
0.0
7d
+0.6
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+26.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+16.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+12.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+9.1
30-day trend
Latest
83.1
30D high
85.0
30D change
+2.4
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 83.1
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Israel is currently in the critical tier. Structural baseline contributes 63.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 20.1 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Critical
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
Israel's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 20.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Alliance entanglement
Israel's alliance posture and strategic ties add 16 baseline points.
Driver 3
Flashpoint proximity
Israel sits near Levant, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.