🇺🇦 Ukraine
Ukraine is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 45.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 27.7 of 30. Verified event pressure and Reuters-linked escalation coverage are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
72.7
24h
-0.3
7d
+1.9
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+27.6
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+13.1
30-day trend
Latest
72.7
30D high
73.0
30D change
+4.3
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 72.7
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Conflict intensity, Recent escalation pattern
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Ukraine is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 45.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 27.7 of 30. Verified event pressure and Reuters-linked escalation coverage are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Verified event pressure
6 verified event-style signals add 14.6 dynamic points.
Driver 2
Reuters-linked escalation coverage
3 recent Reuters-linked articles are contributing 13.1 dynamic points.
Driver 3
Flashpoint proximity
Ukraine sits near Ukraine front, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.