🇷🇺 Russia
Russia is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 49.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 23.4 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Verified event pressure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
72.4
24h
-0.5
7d
+1.5
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+17.1
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+20.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+12.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+10.3
30-day trend
Latest
72.4
30D high
74.1
30D change
+2.4
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 72.4
Citations
- GDELT
Rhetoric intensity, Novelty spike
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Conflict intensity, Recent escalation pattern
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Russia is currently in the severe tier. Structural baseline contributes 49.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 23.4 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Verified event pressure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Severe
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
Russia's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 20.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Verified event pressure
6 verified event-style signals add 13.1 dynamic points.
Driver 3
Alliance entanglement
Russia's alliance posture and strategic ties add 13 baseline points.