🇷🇴 Romania
Romania is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 47.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 9.8 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
56.8
24h
0.0
7d
+0.8
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+16.2
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+17.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+12.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+3.6
30-day trend
Latest
56.8
30D high
56.9
30D change
+1.2
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 56.8
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Romania is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 47.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 9.8 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
Romania's alliance posture and strategic ties add 17 baseline points.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
Romania's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 12.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Flashpoint proximity
Romania sits near Ukraine front, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.