🇧🇾 Belarus
Belarus is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 42.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 15.1 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
57.1
24h
-0.2
7d
+1.3
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+19.4
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+5.7
30-day trend
Latest
57.1
30D high
57.3
30D change
+1.4
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 57.1
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ACLED
Recent escalation pattern, Conflict intensity
Latest source date 2026-04-01
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Belarus is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 42.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 15.1 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
Belarus's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 13.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Alliance entanglement
Belarus's alliance posture and strategic ties add 11 baseline points.
Driver 3
Flashpoint proximity
Belarus sits near Ukraine front, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.