🇵🇭 Philippines
Philippines is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 40.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
40.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+10.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+9.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
40.0
30D high
40.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 40.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Philippines is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 40.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
Philippines's alliance posture and strategic ties add 13 baseline points.
Driver 2
Flashpoint proximity
Philippines sits near South China Sea, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 3
Nuclear-actor exposure
Philippines's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 9.0 baseline points.