AsiaEastern Asia

🇭🇰 Hong Kong

Hong Kong is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 40.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Flashpoint proximity and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.

Exposure score

40.0

Elevated

24h

0.0

7d

0.0

This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.

Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC

Exposure drivers

Active Conflict Pressure

Weight 30%

Raw 43.343.3/100

Weighted contribution

+13.0

Alliance Entanglement

Weight 20%

Raw 30.030.0/100

Weighted contribution

+6.0

Nuclear-Actor Exposure

Weight 20%

Raw 65.065.0/100

Weighted contribution

+13.0

Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure

Weight 15%

Raw 53.353.3/100

Weighted contribution

+8.0

News / Rhetoric Escalation

Weight 15%

Raw 0.00.0/100

Weighted contribution

+0.0

30-day trend

Latest

40.0

30D high

40.0

30D change

0.0

025507510003/0403/0903/1403/1903/2403/2904/02

Apr 2, 2026

Exposure score 40.0

Citations

  • ATLAS Baseline Model

    Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more

    Latest source date 2026-04-04

Current assessment

Hong Kong is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 40.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Flashpoint proximity and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.

Current state: Elevated

Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC

Top drivers

  • Driver 1

    Flashpoint proximity

    Hong Kong sits near Taiwan Strait, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.

  • Driver 2

    Nuclear-actor exposure

    Hong Kong's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 13.0 baseline points.

  • Driver 3

    Civilian exposure context

    Hong Kong's civilian and state-presence context adds 8 structural points.