🇱🇧 Lebanon
Lebanon is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 47.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
47.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+15.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+6.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+18.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
47.0
30D high
47.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 47.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Lebanon is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 47.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
Lebanon's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 18.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Flashpoint proximity
Lebanon sits near Levant, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 3
Civilian exposure context
Lebanon's civilian and state-presence context adds 8 structural points.