🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 47.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Flashpoint proximity and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
47.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+8.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
47.0
30D high
47.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 47.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
United Arab Emirates is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 47.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Flashpoint proximity and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Flashpoint proximity
United Arab Emirates sits near Persian Gulf, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 2
Alliance entanglement
United Arab Emirates's alliance posture and strategic ties add 13 baseline points.
Driver 3
Nuclear-actor exposure
United Arab Emirates's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 13.0 baseline points.