🇿🇦 South Africa
South Africa is currently in the guarded tier. Structural baseline contributes 22.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Civilian exposure context and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
22.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+1.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+6.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+4.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+11.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
22.0
30D high
22.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 22.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
South Africa is currently in the guarded tier. Structural baseline contributes 22.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Civilian exposure context and Alliance entanglement are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Guarded
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Civilian exposure context
South Africa's civilian and state-presence context adds 11 structural points.
Driver 2
Alliance entanglement
South Africa's alliance posture and strategic ties add 6 baseline points.
Driver 3
Nuclear-actor exposure
South Africa's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 4.0 baseline points.