🇸🇪 Sweden
Sweden is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 44.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 4.5 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
48.5
24h
-0.1
7d
+0.3
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+8.4
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+17.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+13.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+7.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+3.1
30-day trend
Latest
48.5
30D high
48.7
30D change
+0.4
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 48.5
Citations
- GDELT
Novelty spike, Rhetoric intensity
Latest source date 2026-03-30
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Sweden is currently in the elevated tier. Structural baseline contributes 44.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 4.5 of 30. Alliance entanglement and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Elevated
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Alliance entanglement
Sweden's alliance posture and strategic ties add 17 baseline points.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
Sweden's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 13.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Flashpoint proximity
Sweden sits near Ukraine front, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.