🇸🇲 San Marino
San Marino is currently in the guarded tier. Structural baseline contributes 34.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
34.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+7.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+6.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+15.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+6.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
34.0
30D high
34.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 34.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
San Marino is currently in the guarded tier. Structural baseline contributes 34.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Flashpoint proximity are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Guarded
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
San Marino's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 15.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Flashpoint proximity
San Marino sits near Ukraine front, which adds structural exposure even on quiet news days.
Driver 3
Alliance entanglement
San Marino's alliance posture and strategic ties add 6 baseline points.