🇸🇯 Svalbard and Jan Mayen
Svalbard and Jan Mayen is currently in the guarded tier. Structural baseline contributes 27.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Civilian exposure context are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
27.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+4.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+6.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+10.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+7.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
27.0
30D high
27.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 27.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Svalbard and Jan Mayen is currently in the guarded tier. Structural baseline contributes 27.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Nuclear-actor exposure and Civilian exposure context are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Guarded
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Nuclear-actor exposure
Svalbard and Jan Mayen's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 10.0 baseline points.
Driver 2
Civilian exposure context
Svalbard and Jan Mayen's civilian and state-presence context adds 7 structural points.
Driver 3
Alliance entanglement
Svalbard and Jan Mayen's alliance posture and strategic ties add 6 baseline points.