🇸🇭 Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha is currently in the low tier. Structural baseline contributes 13.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Civilian exposure context and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Exposure score
13.0
24h
0.0
7d
0.0
This score reflects country-level nuclear escalation exposure, not a prediction of specific strikes.
Latest publication: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Exposure drivers
Active Conflict Pressure
Weight 30%
Weighted contribution
+1.0
Alliance Entanglement
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+3.0
Nuclear-Actor Exposure
Weight 20%
Weighted contribution
+4.0
Public Infrastructure / Population Exposure
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+5.0
News / Rhetoric Escalation
Weight 15%
Weighted contribution
+0.0
30-day trend
Latest
13.0
30D high
13.0
30D change
0.0
Apr 2, 2026
Exposure score 13.0
Citations
- ATLAS Baseline Model
Nuclear actor adjacency / exposure, Regional flashpoint proximity +2 more
Latest source date 2026-04-04
Current assessment
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha is currently in the low tier. Structural baseline contributes 13.0 of 70, while recent movement adds 0.0 of 30. Civilian exposure context and Nuclear-actor exposure are the strongest current drivers.
Current state: Low
Published snapshot: Apr 2, 2026, 14:00 UTC
Top drivers
Driver 1
Civilian exposure context
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha's civilian and state-presence context adds 5 structural points.
Driver 2
Nuclear-actor exposure
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha's proximity to nuclear-armed states adds 4.0 baseline points.
Driver 3
Alliance entanglement
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha's alliance posture and strategic ties add 3 baseline points.